Pakistan’s Economic Survey 2023-24: Key Highlights Ahead of June 9 Release
Islamabad: The government has finalized its annual economic survey, which will be officially unveiled on June 9. Preliminary data reveals mixed results, with GDP growth reaching 2.68% – below the 3.6% target – but showing notable expansion in key sectors.
Macroeconomic Overview
- Economy expands by $39.3 billion, reaching $410.96 billion (up from $371.66 billion last year)
- Per capita income rises by $144
- GDP in PKR terms grows by Rs9,600 billion, hitting Rs114.7 trillion (vs. Rs105.1 trillion last fiscal year)
Sectoral Performance
🏞️ Agriculture: Mixed Results
- Crops (+4.78%) and Livestock (+4.72%) exceed targets
- Cotton ginning plunges (-19%), far below expectations
- Fisheries (+1.42%) and Forestry (+3.03%) miss marks
🏭 Industry: Surprise Gains
- Overall growth at 4.77% (above 4.4% target)
- Large-scale manufacturing contracts (-1.53%), while small-scale surges (+8.81%)
- Electricity, gas & water supply skyrockets (+28.88%) – the year’s top performer
- Construction (+6.61%) outpaces projections
💼 Services: Underwhelming Growth
- Sector expands just 2.91% (vs. 4.1% target)
- Wholesale/retail trade (+0.14%) disappoints
- Hotels & restaurants (+4.06%), ICT (+6.48%), and finance (+5.7%) show strength
Key Takeaways
While falling short of its GDP target, Pakistan’s economy saw notable expansion in dollar terms, with standout performances in power, construction, and agriculture. However, manufacturing struggles and sluggish services growth remain concerns ahead of the budget announcement.
Sectoral Growth: Hits and Misses
The economic survey reveals varied performance across services and social sectors:
📈 Outperforming Sectors
- Real Estate: Grew by 3.75%, narrowly exceeding its 3.7% target
- Education: Expanded by 4.43%, surpassing the 3.5% benchmark
- Healthcare & Social Work: Achieved 3.71% growth against a 3.2% goal
- Public Administration: Surged by 9.92% – nearly triple its 3.4% target
📉 Underperforming Areas
- Transport & Communications: Managed only 2.2% growth, falling short of the 3.3% target
Policy Implications
The contrasting results – from public administration’s exceptional growth to transport sector’s sluggishness – present both opportunities and challenges for economic planners. These outcomes will likely influence resource allocation in the upcoming federal budget, particularly for:
- Infrastructure development (addressing transport bottlenecks)
- Social sector funding (building on education/healthcare successes)
- Governance reforms (capitalizing on public administration gains)
The data underscores Pakistan’s uneven economic recovery, with strong institutional performance offset by weaknesses in critical connectivity sectors.